Can Ron Paul beat Obama one-on-one? The answer can only be yes. First and foremost, he has one huge advantage no other contending Republican has. He won’t have Ron Paul running against him on a third-party line! Second, as a libertarian populist, he can do to Obama what Lee wanted to do at Gettysburg: outflank the opponent from the right and left flank at the same time.
In spite of their vocal disagreement with Paul on foreign policy, conservatives will stick with him since beating Obama is their top priority. Ron Paul can appeal to the left on a myriad of issues against a warmongering President who is a tool of Wall Street: anti-war, anti-drug war, ending the Fed, civil liberties, ending corporate welfare and opting out of Socialism Security. Those on the left concerned with these issues can comfortably vote for Ron Paul based on his view of his own limited constitutional powers. He will not try to dominate Congress or the states. He will not be an imperial president.
Ron Paul is the only GOP candidate who is strong where Obama is strong. He polls best among young people, Democrats, blacks, independents and voters in the Northeast where Obama won every single state. A Ron Paul candidacy puts into play every state that Obama won narrowly in 2008 and probably more than that. These swing states hold 136 electoral votes: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico and North Carolina and Virginia. Ron Paul would need the McCain states (180 electoral votes) plus at least five of the eleven swing states to win. There is no reason to think that Ron Paul cannot win every McCain state against a man perceived to be the most liberal president in decades.
Polls show Ron Paul is already competitive with Obama in seven of the eleven swing states. Significantly, he is virtually tied with Obama in the two states that know him the best, Iowa and New Hampshire
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